(Composite by Hannah Yoest / Photos: GettyImages / Shutterstock)

Your must-read of the day: Sarah Longwell has the details from an exclusive Bulwark Poll.

“A large majority of GOP voters is ready to move on from Donald Trump. But a devoted minority might not let them.”

“This,” writes Longwell, “is the Always Trump faction of the Republican party. And they are why the GOP could be sleepwalking into another Donald Trump catastrophe.”

Here’s the bottom line from a new poll by The Bulwark and GOP pollster Whit Ayres of North Star Opinion Research:

Donald Trump has slipped to his lowest point since he emerged on the political scene almost eight years ago. He remains a formidable force, to be sure, with a lock on approximately 30 percent of likely Republican primary and caucus voters nationally. But a majority of the GOP is ready to move on.

The Bulwark<strong>/North Star Opinion Research poll is consistent with several other polls that have found Trump fading with voters and losing to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in head-to-head match-ups.

In each of three scenarios polled, Trump’s weakness is evident. But, as the pollsters emphasize, he has a tight grip on between 28 and 30 percent of the GOP primary voters.

• In a head-to-head match, DeSantis leads Trump 52 percent to 30 percent, with 15 percent undecided and 3 percent saying they would not vote if those were the only two options.

• With DeSantis, Trump, and “another candidate,” DeSantis got 44 percent, Trump got 28 percent, and the generic “another candidate” got 10 percent, with 17 percent undecided.

• In a 10-candidate field, DeSantis got 39 percent, Trump 28 percent, Mike Pence 9 percent, Nikki Haley and Liz Cheney 4 percent each, and five other candidates registered at 1 percent. In this scenario, 13 percent of the respondents were undecided.

Bad news for Trump, right? Maybe.

But, as Sarah notes, we need some historical context here. Even though most Republican voters want to move on from Trump, his solid core of support might be enough to win him early, winner-take-all-primaries. She reminds us what happened in 2016:

• Iowa 24.3 percent (Trump came in second)

• New Hampshire 35.3 percent (Trump came in first)

• South Carolina 32.5 percent (Trump came in first)

Trump then went on to dominate the field in Nevada with 45.9 percent of the vote before catapulting into Super Tuesday with enough momentum to win 7 of the 11 states. And with the GOP’s “winner take all” or “winner take most” delegate apportionment rules, in a big field of candidates, devoted pluralities can be telling.

**

The Always Trumpers

Here’s the dilemma for the GOP.

Despite clear evidence of Trump Fatigue, the “Always Trump” faction of the GOP will follow Trump to the gates of Hell.

One question that Sarah was anxious to test with this poll was “how many ‘Always Trumpers’ would follow Trump if he lost the GOP primary and launched an independent bid for president.”

And according to our poll, that 28 percent of Republican primary voters already locked in for Trump say they’ll support him even if he ran as an independent in the general election.

This is why it is dangerous to under-estimate Trump. Sarah writes:

[Even]though Trump is as weak as he’s ever been, even though he is beset by legal peril, and even though there are alternative candidates turning the heads of a large majority of GOP primary voters (and donors), Trump still has an awful lot going for him:

• 100 percent name ID.

• A devoted base that will follow him on an independent run and potentially split the GOP vote. (And even if Trump doesn’t launch an independent bid, does anyone think he’s going to be a loyal Republican who supports the nominee if it isn’t him?)

• A big primary field of candidates who are scared of him and his base and therefore more likely to attack each other than Trump.

• New revelations that Biden and Pence also had classified docs at their homes and offices, nullifying Trump’s political (if not legal) vulnerability.

• An imminent return to Facebook and Twitter allowing him to fire up his small-dollar fundraising machine and push himself back into the news cycle.

None of that makes Trump a lock to win the nomination. But it’s certainly enough assets to make it possible.

**

Choose your adventure

Sarah sums up what the Bulwark/North Star Opinion Research poll and her focus groups are saying about the current state of play:

If you want to argue that the GOP is moving on from Trump, you’re right.

If you want to argue that Trump still has a grip on enough of the base to win a fractured GOP primary, you’re also (probably) right.

And if you want to argue that voters who are interested in moving on from Trump still like Trump and could swing back to him if Ron DeSantis doesn’t fulfill all their hopes and dreams once he’s on the big stage . . . well, I think that’s right, too.

Which is why it’s not enough for Republicans to simply hope Trump fades and another candidate emerges. They have to be proactive about chipping away at the 30 percent of Always Trumpers before it’s too late.

The Bulwark/North Star Opinion Research poll of likely Republican voters was conducted online from January 16 to 21, 2023. Methodology and result summaries. Topline results.