"Roevember surprise?"   

Post Dobbs, even in highly (R) areas like Idaho, the voter turnout models have not been accurate. That's to say that it's been much higher.

Also, the shift that polling is not picking up is that there has been about a 6-7 point shift away from (R). 

1. Whackadoodles running supporting the big lie

2. More and more bad news coming out about DT

3. Roe v wade

4. LGBTQ+ rights at risk

It may not necessariy be the polling data, but more the turnout models that "could" be off.

time will tell. A lot at stake here.