"Roevember surprise?" I'm not convinced.  

In the run-up to 2016's presidential election, Hillary polled higher than Trump almost everywhere.

Trumpists are quiet or, like me, don't answer polls. Politely declined a half dozen phone polls in the last week.  Don't give money to a candidate, party in your own name if you can help it. They never, ever forget a sucker, er- contributor.

Anyhow, Trump's brand of conservatism has been the urine in conservative cornflakes. I don't disclose, much less discuss it with anybody who I don't know very well. Pollsters are, generally, just looking for a way to shape whatever it is they're working for. They're not changing feck-all, so I don't waste my breath so that they can decide on a lie acceptable to "X" members of the electorate. That's probably only true for real conservatives, I know 'Republican over-the-top fanatics' exist.

I agree that the Dobbs decision will motivate voters. Again, if my attitude is at all indicative, I don't know how I fall on the abortion issue. I support a woman's right of control of her body, but at some point there is another person involved. Not a 'life' because a life without self-determination is a vegetable.

The Trump Tantrum has run it's course. He did as his electorate wished, he upset the establishment. But that establishment is very flexible, adapted to the new political reality as it has dozens of times in recent history. Anything other than the Trumpisms already adapted are wasting away along with the Mart a Lago Moron's influence. His base will always be his base, but it is shrinking and the decisive bloc in the electorate- independents are so very, very over Trump. He and Ross Perot, George Wallace are funny little distractions from the real political action.

Oh- Lindsey Graham is doing all he can to lose that fight to- a national ban on abortion? More likely that the procedure will be more and more available. The times and the culture are changing. The average American family size hit 3.16 members and continues to decline, although it must be slower than it was 30 years ago- you can't get negative numbers as an average family size, numbers in the vicinity of 3.1 is gonna sticky- that's one in eight families with more than one child. The economics and culture will see to it.